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Concept Okun (Okun's law) unemployment means not to make full use of production factors, increase in unemployment is accompanied by a decline in real GDP, described this relationship between unemployment and GDP of experience rule is called Okun's law. United States economists made by ASE·aoken, used to approximate description of unemployment and real GNPFor the relationship. The content is, the unemployment rate is higher than the natural rate of unemployment 1%, real GNP is lower than the potential GNP3%. For example, assuming that the unemployment rate was 8%, 2% higher than the natural rate of unemployment, according to Okun's law, 6% lower than potential GNP real GNP. However, this rule does not seem to Okun's law works now in China. Because, when China is an economicGrowth when cheers, only to find the unemployment rate has also been rising. Economic growth in China, a large part thanks to large-area application of advanced science and technology. Machines instead of manual labour, leading to a rise in the unemployment rate. Present situation of China's broad GDP and population growth in the level of demand for labour, in the dynamic sense mainly depends on economic growth. Faster economic growth, labour neededFind a relatively large, increased jobs, high levels of employment, unemployment and low economic growth slow, relatively small demand for labour, have a direct increase of the restrictive job, low levels of employment, high rates of unemployment. Representatives of this view is the United States economist Arthur? Okun, in 1962 he made his famous "Okun". Demonstration of the law ofBoth unemployment and GDP growth rate is changing in the opposite direction. -High rate of unemployment reduction, low growth rates will increase unemployment. He also believes that gap is the ratio between the gross domestic product and unemployment 1:2, 1% that each increase in the unemployment rate, the real GDP will be reduced by about 2%. Okun's law is universally recognized at home and abroad.From the perspective of China's actual situation, no doubt while economic growth is a prerequisite for employment growth, however, high rates of economic growth did not create as many jobs as expected. China in the 1980 of the 20th century the economy has maintained a high growth rate of speed, average reached 9.4%, but do not create corresponding growth in employment. In 1985-1990, gDP average annual growth rate of 7.89%, average employment growth rate over the same period; in 2.61%, China's GDP average growth rate of 11.56%, annual population growth rate of employment in the same period; in 1.23%, GDP average annual growth rate of 8.3% in China, employment in the same period the average annual population growth rateFor 0.96%. Data shows that since 1991, the pulling effect on employment and GDP growth in China has significantly reduced compared to early, Okun's law variation occurs in China. Rate variation analysis of Chinese economic structure change of GDP in recent years, away from the long-term healthy development of China's economy also have some gaps. China has long beenAdhere to the "growth on the priority", there was a momentum of rapid growth since the economic reform and opening up, China's economic growth to a great extent, but in the dramatic growth in the GDP, there is no true full economic development. Because economic development means not only increases in output, also means that with the increase in production and there's changes in the structure of the input and output, that is, economicStructures, economic systems, and change the operating mechanism of economic progress. In the period of rapid economic growth in China, economic problems did not get a comprehensive solution as the GDP growth, China is still quite large proportion of agriculture in the gross domestic product; and compared with the stage of developed countries as a proportion of the tertiary industry low proportion; problems of State-owned enterprises have not penetrating intoEnd of address; labour education needs and level of training is still behind the situation. Employment pressure and secondly, Chinese State-owned enterprise reform to increase the current employment pressure. The Chinese represent a large proportion of the State-owned enterprises in the national economy, and there's generally redundant problem of huge, inefficient. In market economy reforms, a considerable number of officers receive post-leaving or were laid off, but because thisWas released the general age of the labour force is large, with limited skills, there is no advantage in market competition, and excess economic growth on the absorption capacity of the labour force was much smaller than the market, led to a considerable number of staff were laid off cannot re-enter the labour market. Therefore reflected in the statistical data in the State-owned enterprises improve efficiency, profitability increase, GDP growth year after year, but loseRates are on an upward trend. Labor transfer of China's urban and rural residents income change again, large amounts of surplus labor in rural areas to urban areas is another reason. According to statistics, at present China's rural labor force of 450 million, surplus labor, nearly 200 million people, every year more than 10 million people into the towns of modern sector employment, these jobs are generally not included in the statisticsNumbers of employees, but took into account statistics of cities and towns in need of employment, reemployment assistance posts, despite faster economic growth these years, but registered urban unemployment rate was on the rise. Suggestions 1, the readjustment of the industrial structure adjustment of industrial structures, to the transformation of traditional industries and the development of services to drive demand. For traditional industries, first, it is necessary to actively support propSex industry, particularly housing and automobile manufacturing, promoting both to drive the development of the service sector-led industrial development, to expand employment; the second is through technological innovation, enhance the technological content of products and processing value-added, renewal and extension of the product chain to promote products, create more employment opportunities three is to speed up adjustment in the manufacturing sector, promotion of traditional industryRestructuring. For service industries, due to its small share of GDP, contributions to the economic development of small, often do not become the advocate of local government promoting the industry. In fact, vigorously develop the service industry, to long-term economic development and solve the employment problem has long-term treatment effects of curing. Tertiary industry is the largest and most absorbing labor force employment growth elasticity of the industry. Suited to2, the face of its abundant labor resources and the relative scarcity of capital resources, industrialization and industrial structure adjustment in pay special attention to labour-intensive, capital-intensive and technology-intensive industries, reasonable layout of harmonious development. Devoting major efforts to developing relatively labour-intensive and technical ability is moderate, capital-intensive industries, increased labor content in the industry, improving theContribution of labor inputs. 3, promoting the private economy and the promotion of private-owned economy development, vigorously develop the "three non-" employment. First of all, to bring non-State-owned enterprises, it can process a lot of surplus labor forces in State-owned enterprises create environments. 2001 China average per day, more than more than 4,000 employees laid off from State-owned enterprises into private-owned enterprise reemployment of workers. Second, advocateInformal employment. Relative to formal employment, informal employment and labor contract is one that is not signed, or temporarily cannot be established without conditions and establish a stable labour relations a form of employment. With the establishment of market-oriented mechanisms, rising is an inevitable trend of informal employment, recognition of non-formal employment will contribute to the reemployment problem solving. Thirdly, to develop non-agricultural industries,Create a large number of rural surplus labor transfer conditions. 4-intensive industries and taking advantage of human resources, expanding the proportion of labour-intensive products export in foreign trade. According to the theory of factor endowment, a State in the international division of labour and the international trade, production and export of the country's resource-rich products, and relative scarcity of imported products. Elements in China respectAssign a feature rich labor resources, low labor costs, China's comparative advantage in labour-intensive industries, investment required for the development of international market of labour-intensive products export processing should be the export trade policy in China and an important element of industrial policy, which can increase the capital accumulation, when the employment pressures gradually ease, and then gradually go to focus on introducing and developing skillsOperation of high-tech and capital intensive industries, to technology and upgrading of the industrial structure. Application study on nonlinear dynamic correlation of China's economic growth and the unemployment rate is made of Okun's law. Nonlinear equations of form of Okun's coefficient estimates, as can be seen, since the beginning of reform and opening up, at different stages of economic growth, China's economic growth effect on unemployment isDifferent. The economy is in a recession, economic growth is negative impact on unemployment, that is, economic growth have a pulling effect on employment, but the pull factor is smaller. In the period of economic expansion, growth effect on unemployment is positive, not only failed to boost economic growth on employment, have inhibitory effects. Why is this result? Can be analyzed from the following areas: (A) advances in technology will create more employment opportunities, is also leading to mass unemployment? 1990 pisalidesi (Pissarides) studies have shown that if productivity growth of all walks of life and all enterprises are involved, ultimately increasing employment, the reason for this is the enterprise will grow more rapidly in the productivity of the labour force to adapt to the capital investment requiredSeeking. However, the history of economic development suggests that technological progress and not at the same time in all walks of life and all enterprises equally increase productivity, on the contrary, some industry productivity, productivity gains slow in some industry. This technological progress while creating a new post
Rift Platinum, and destroyed some of the posts. As long as the technical innovation, through automation, knowledge and skillAging, as well as connections to our creative destruction caused by such means as bankruptcy risk of decline in employment. Philip. Aghion (PhilippeAghion) and Peter. Scott Hoyt (PeterHowitt) in the structures in a model of endogenous growth theory, u is the unemployment rate, as a unit of production life-cycle, g for the economy (or production) increasedLong rates, p (v) for jobs matching speed. Also reveals the relationship between economic growth and the unemployment rate is. Since the beginning of reform and opening up in China, has played a decisive role in technological progress on economic growth, technological progress contribution rate in emerging industries and in a larger, faster economic growth, less demand for employment. In traditional industries and labor-intensive industries, the introduction of technological progress,On the promotion of economic growth, far less than the crowd out of the labour force. In the period of economic expansion, is a period of rapid growth of new industries and traditional industries, creative destruction effect of technical progress is far greater than the pulling effects of economic growth on employment, so show the correlation between economic growth and the unemployment rate is; and the period of recession, is the reform of traditional industries, growthDifficult period of (real), only the development of new industry-led growth, employment effect is positive, a negative economic growth effect on unemployment. (B) since the beginning of reform and opening up, is an important period of adjustment of industrial structure in China, is also a crucial period of optimization and upgrading of the industrial structure, primary industry added value in China during this period share of GDP fell from 28% to 15.2%, down 12.8%, second industrial added value share of GDP rose from 48.2% to cent, rose 4.8%, added value of tertiary industry share of the GDP rose from 23.8% to cent
Diablo 3 CD-KEY, up 8gebai. Philip. Aghion (PhilippeAghion) and Peter.Scott Hoyt (PeterHowitt) indicated in his book the theory of endogenous growth: technology advances will create more employment opportunities, is also leading to mass unemployment? Productivity growth and unemployment are positive or negative correlation? For such problems, has no clear answer. A common view is that, due to advances in technology saves bigLabor, lead to increased unemployment, while another view is that, productivity growth has created wealth for the society, stimulating demand, and the ability to create large numbers of jobs. 1990 pisalidesi (Pissarides) studies have shown that if productivity growth of all walks of life and all enterprises are involved, ultimately increasing employment, the reason for this is theEnterprises will grow more rapidly in the productivity of labour to meet the requirement of capital investment. However, the history of economic development suggests that technological progress and not at the same time in all walks of life and all enterprises equally increase productivity. Instead, some industry productivity, productivity gains slow in some industry. This technological progress while creating a new post, the otherAnd destroyed some of the posts. As long as the aging of industrial innovation through automation, knowledge, skills, and creative destruction caused by such means as bankruptcy risk associated decline in employment, growth and unemployment in the long term there is a positive balance. This phenomenon with Davis and Hati matches the results of empirical research, they concluded that, unemployment was at its peak is high-Speed circulation period. Productivity growth, reconfiguration of the final result of the workforce. However, rapid technological advances made by the destruction of the original post faster than their new posts. Philip. Aghion and Peter. Scott Hoyt by examining creative destruction conducted a study on the relationship between growth and unemployment. When they work in the analysis of a single enterprise and unemployment, growthRate as the exogenous variables, and then come by and linked to the process of innovation in the growth and biochemical. Detailed macroeconomic policy had four main objectives: low unemployment, price stability and long-term economic growth and the balance of payments. These four objectives to achieve and what is the qualitative or quantitative relation between them, are major issues in macroeconomics to study. BooksFor these numbers to be estimated. For example, United States Economist Rudiger Dornbusch (A.Dornbusch), the eighth edition of the macro-economics of 129 page had the following discussion: does not have the same expectations of inflation, inflation rate 1%, and unemployment will increase 2%. 2% increase in the unemployment rate, GDP will be reduced by 4%. BecauseAnd, reducing the inflation rate 1%, GDP will be reduced by 4%. Of course, these numbers may not be accurate, but due to the time, place, conditions are different there are differences. However, these numbers, does have an important role in macroeconomic research, need to be explored seriously. You know, make an important contribution in this regard, is Philip songLine. This is from the United Kingdom Economist Phillips (A.W. Phillps) first. It represents a short-term alternative relationship between unemployment and inflation. From the slope of the Phillips curve can be estimated number of unemployment and inflation rates. Second, Okun. Okun (A.M. Okun) is a United States Economist, former Johnson totalCommission Chairman of the Council of economic advisers during the period. Him in order to enable the President, Congress and the public that if from 7% per cent to the unemployment rate, benefited from the national economy, according to statistical data to estimate, due to reduced unemployment and bring real GDP increase, resulting in the famous Okun. This law is the most reliable experience in macro-economics lawOne of the. What is the Okun? SA right Tim Blake Nelson (P. A.Samuelsm) and Nordhaus (W.D.Nordhaus) co-authored the 16th edition of the economics page for exact statements: by Okun's law, 2% faster than every potential GDP growth GDP growth, unemployment will fall 1%. GDP growth potential than GDP 2% a slow growth, rising unemployment 1%. GDP is a country in a year of all final goods and services produced, is the sum of the market value. First of all
Diablo 3 Gold, the concept of potential GDP is Okun 's, it means keeping prices relatively stable case, a country's economy the maximum production output. Potential GDP is also called the full employment GDP. The so-called fullEmployment refers to all those who are willing to work under the current wage employment. United States, in the mid 1990 of the 20th century, when the unemployment rate was 5. 5%, even if full employment. Potential GDP is determined by the capacity of a country's economy. Production capacity also depends on the available resources (labor, capital, land, and so on) and technical efficiency. Potential GDP tends to slow,Steady growth, while the actual GDP is in very large fluctuations in the economic cycle, often deviated from the potential GDP appear. In times of economic recession, real GDP below potential GDP; in times of economic upsurge, actual GDP is higher than the potential GDP in the short term. By Okun's law, can fairly accurately predict the unemployment rate. For example, the United States 1979-1982-year economic stagnation period, GDP growth, potential GDP annual growth 3%, 3 years 9%. According to Okun's law, 2% lower than the potential GDP growth of real GDP growth, unemployment will rise to 1%. When real GDP growth 9% is lower than the potential GDP growth, unemployment will rise 4. 5%. Known in 1979, unemployment5. 8%, 1982, the unemployment rate should be 10. 3% (5. 8%4. 5%). According to official statistics, in 1982, the actual unemployment rate was 9. 7%. And forecast of unemployment rate of 10. 3% very close. Okun's law is an important conclusion: in order to prevent a rise in unemployment, potential GDP growth and real GDP growth must be the same.Fruit wants to bring down the unemployment rate, real GDP growth must be faster than the potential GDP growth. Should be stressed that the unemployment rate and GDP of Okun's law dealt with is the relationship between changes in the unemployment rate and the number of potential GDP growth rate of real GDP growth reduction of this difference, the number of relationships. Can be listed as follows: =-1/2 change in the unemployment rate (real GDP growth rate-Potential GDP growth rate) is known: potential GDP growth rate of 3%, when the real GDP growth rate of 3%, both rate of gap 0 o'clock, the unemployment rate remains unchanged when real GDP growth rate of 5%, when 2% larger than the potential GDP growth, the unemployment rate will decline 1%; when the real GDP growth rate of-1%, smaller than the potential GDP growth rate 4When%, unemployment will rise to 2%. Is on from the growth rate of real GDP and potential GDP growth rate difference, find the changes in the unemployment rate, our solution to the following changes in the unemployment rate real GDP growth. Change in real GDP growth =3%-2* unemployment if the unemployment rate remains unchanged, 3% real GDP growth rates, if on unemploymentRose 2%, real GDP growth rate of-1%, down 1%; if unemployment falls 1%, 5% real GDP growth rate. Worthy of note is that in many books on macroeconomics, expressed as Okun: the relationship between changes in the unemployment rate and the number of real GDP growth. As previously referenced in the Macroeconomics of the eighth edition by Rudiger Dornbusch, 129Page mentioned by Okun's law, the unemployment rate increased by two percentage points, GDP will be reduced by 4%. And if he (J. E. Stiglitz) the second edition of the economics of 835 pages (758 pages under Translation): "based on Okun's research, unemployment for each 1%, product 3%. Now, most economists continue to believe that theIncrease is greater than the ratio of employment, although not as large as Okun said. Now estimates forecast, the unemployment rate for every 1%, output will be reduced 2-2. 5%. "They expressed Okun, perhaps to the wording simple. However, only the actual relationship between output growth and changes in the unemployment rate, and not linked to the growth of potential output, is clearly inappropriate.Because, if the exclusion of potential output growth, from the previously mentioned changes in the unemployment rate of calculating the growth rate of GDP of the formula can be simplified as follows: real GDP growth =-2* unemployment rate changes according to this formula, if the unemployment rate remains unchanged, real GDP growth was 0 (previous answer to growth 3%); if the unemployment rate increased by 2%, real GDP growthFall 4% (before the answer is by 1%) if unemployment falls 1%, 2% real GDP growth (before the answer is 5%). Answers to these questions and answers in front of totally different, is clearly wrong. Visible study on relationship between change of real GDP growth and the unemployment rate, must be based on real GDP growth than the potential GDP growth is fast or slow,How many and how much slower and faster, and must not be based only on the actual GDP growth, ignoring the potential GDP growth and reset. In the study of China's macro-economic policies, how to take into account the relationship between unemployment and economic growth? Now and in the future for a long time, China's employment situation will continue to be severe, mainly due to the Chinese population is large, serious excess of labor resources, longSince always form the strong pressure on employment. In front of the objective realities, fundamental way to solve the problem of unemployment is to maintain a comparatively high economic growth rate. Therefore, China's unemployment rate and GDP growth of number relationships is especially important. According to press reports, the results of this research are the following: first, calculate GDP increased by 1%, you can increase the number ofLess jobs. According to statistics, between 1991 to 1998, China's GDP average annual growth of 11. 2%, non-agricultural workers an average annual increase of 14 million people. 7 years increased by 98.05 million people. Increase in GDP per 1%, can provide new 1.25 million for non-agricultural jobs. II is to evaluate employment elasticity of output, That is, GDP increased by 1%, the percentage increase in employment. Output elasticity of employment in China now have a steady downward trend. After entering the 1990, 0. 1 wandering up and down. 1992-year minimum is 0. 082,1991 up to 0 years. 151. There are changes in the calculation of GDP growth and the unemployment rate. Some economists by statisticsAnalyze the results: when keeping GDP growth of above 6% levels, increase in GDP per 1%, unemployment reduced by two percentage points. Research on third thought better of. To a large extent the impact of Okun 's. In General, the relationship between unemployment and GDP growth of the number of issues in China, has yet to be resolved, I think the key is to accurately understand OkunThe law. Finally, we discuss both theoretical issues and Okun. -Okun's law and hidden unemployment. When the economy into recession by the Summit, increased unemployment, jobs, GDP declined. By Okun's law, the unemployment rate for every 1%, jobs were 1%,GDP by 2%. Percentage of GDP reduction greater than the percentage of jobs. OnCompanies, when market demand is reduced, should yield reduction and jobs seems to be the same ratio, yield reduction 2%, enterprises should dismiss employees 2%. But in fact, dismiss employees is often less than 2%. This is because enterprise is high cost of hiring and training employees, less yield dismissal, increased production and recruitment of staff, loss is too large. Moreover, enterprisesAlso fear of being laid off employees to other enterprises, need not come back in the future. So in demand, yield decreased, enterprises prefer to let some surplus staff to stay on the job for the time being casual. Although these employees is not unemployment, but does not actually work with unemployed workers, known as disguised unemployment. Second is the Okun's law and the law of diminishing returns.The law is one of the basic laws of economics. According to this law, other factors of production such as land, machinery and other inputs is intact, along with the increase in labour input, work less and less the effect of other factors, declining marginal product of labor. That is, percentage of the yield increase is less than the percentage increase in employment. By Okun's law, whenEconomy out of recession, when from the bottom into the expansion, reduction of unemployment, employment, GDP increases. 1% less unemployment, employment increased 1%,GDP 2%. Percentage of GDP increase is greater than the percentage increase in employment. In this way, Okun's law appears to contradict the law of diminishing returns. But, as mentioned earlier, in a recession, companies have hidden unemployment,A number of staff in posts does not work. When the economy out of recession, when expanded, demand increased. These hidden unemployment could work more fully. This is to make the output increase is greater than the percentage increase in employment as a percentage of the secret.
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